Sports Illustrated,
Mountain West
This is the last year before the Mountain West splinters, with many of the league’s top programs off to the rebuilt Pac-12. It’s a shame given the league in recent years has found its way into a proverbial Goldilocks zone for reaching the NCAA tournament, sending at least four teams dancing in four straight seasons. The formula has been simple: Take care of business in the nonconference and stack up enough Quad 1 and 2 wins in conference play to sneak into the Dance. Will that continue this season? Coaching turnover at Colorado State and New Mexico threatens things somewhat, but this league is still positioned well for multiple bids.
San Diego State is the clear favorite. It returns a pair of stars in Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath and did important work to boost the talent around them this offseason. Sean Newman Jr. (Louisiana Tech) solidifies the point guard spot, while Latrell Davis (San Jose State) and a healthy Reese Waters gives the Aztecs the scoring punch they lacked on the wing a year ago.
Behind them, Utah State and Boise State look like potential at-large teams. Utah State kept its head coach Jerrod Calhoun and its star guard Mason Falslev this spring, huge continuity for a program that has been in a constant state of reloading in recent years. They’re deeper and more athletic around Falslev than they were a year ago, though the Aggies will certainly miss Ian Martinez. Boise State boosted its roster with a pair of high-major transfers in PG Dylan Andrews (UCLA) and Drew Fielder (Georgetown) to go with a proven returning core. Leon Rice has consistently had this team around the bubble in recent years and I’d expect that to continue.
Colorado State loses a lot, but promoting top assistant Ali Farokhmanesh to head coach was the right move. Marist transfer Josh Pascarelli could be a star there. Same goes for New Mexico: It’s almost entirely a fresh start under Eric Olen, but he’s a sharp head coach and the Lobos have the athleticism and versatility to surprise. Grand Canyon joins the league this season and won’t be at a talent deficit after a big spring in the portal, though the level of competition from the WAC to the Mountain West is a serious adjustment. And don’t sleep on UNLV or Nevada either. UNLV stacked up talent for new coach Josh Pastner, and Steve Alford has a way of surprising everyone when his Nevada teams enter the season with low expectations.
Atlantic 10
The A-10 has been aggressive early in the revenue-sharing era, with hopes that will translate to increased luck on Selection Sunday. The league looks stronger on paper than it has in years past, but no one seems like a surefire at-large team. VCU has been the standard-bearer in the league but has a new coach in Phil Martelli Jr. and a completely revamped roster. Talent-wise, the Rams are ahead of the curve with former high-major rotation players Tyrell Ward (LSU) and Jadrian Tracey (Oregon) as well as highly recruited guards Ahmad Nowell and Nyk Lewis. ’s pick to win the league though is Saint Louis, which cleaned up in the portal around returning star Robbie Avila and has an outstanding offensive mind at the helm in Josh Schertz. Keep an eye on NIU transfer Quentin Jones, who has star potential if he puts it all together.
Three other title contenders in what looks like a crowded top five:
Loyola Chicago: The Ramblers fought through the injury bug last year to win 25 games. Keeping elite rim protector Miles Rubin was massive, as is getting back a healthy Justin Moore at point guard. Head coach Drew Valentine hopes adding more on-ball shot-creating talent via the portal will pay big dividends. George Washington: Chris Caputo’s team is deep, with a legitimate nine to 10 capable rotation players. Rafael Castro is a star up front, but figuring out the role allocation around him quickly is a must if the Revs want to enter the at-large conversation. Dayton: The Flyers fell apart in A-10 play a year ago but have the talent to bounce back this season, with athletic wing transfers De’Shayne Montgomery and Keonte Jones potential game-changers alongside a solid group of returners. American
The 2024–25 season was brutal for the American, finishing below Conference USA and the Missouri Valley in KenPom’s final conference ranks. It should be better this season, but at-large hopes seem limited. Memphis has the talent to stay in the mix but loses a ton with the departures of PJ Haggerty and Dain Dainja. Kansas State transfer Dug McDaniel could have a monster year, but the frontcourt looks bleak. The team with the best chance to challenge them for a conference title is South Florida, which loaded up on talent in Bryan Hodgson’s first offseason on the job. Division II transfer guard Wes Enis is a stud, and the duo of Daimion Collins (LSU) and Izaiyah Nelson (Arkansas State) gives them high-major size.
WCC
The WCC will also feel realignment reverberations after this year, with Gonzaga joining the new Pac-12 and potentially threatening the WCC’s perennial multibid league status. For now though, it’s a safe bet to project the Zags and Saint Mary’s in their usual spots in the NCAA tournament field. Gonzaga looks like the league favorite this season (for reasons detailed in our Top 25 countdown), but Saint Mary’s should be solid with Paulius Murauskas and Mikey Lewis returning. The bigger question is whether a third serious contender can emerge. San Francisco seems like the most likely choice with star wing Tyrone Riley IV back and a talented and deep frontcourt rotation around him. Santa Clara is a sleeper, especially if Elijah Mahi takes the next step. Former G League Ignite wing Thierry Darlan is a big-time talent swing to watch, too.
Northern Iowa has plenty of returning talent with key cogs Trey Campbell, Ben Schwieger and Leon Bond III back after strong years in 2024–25. If NAIA transfer Tristan Smith lives up to the hype, this could be the team that gets Ben Jacobson back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since ’16.
Illinois State
Illinois State finding a way to keep Chase Walker and Johnny Kinziger out of the portal in the face of considerable tampering means excitement about the Redbirds is incredibly high. Walker is perhaps the most dominant big in mid-major basketball, a load on the block with impressive passing chops when opponents send double teams.
Liberty
The Flames have averaged 25 wins per season over the last seven years under Ritchie McKay and look poised for another big campaign, with three senior starters (Kaden Metheny, Colin Porter and Zach Cleveland) all returning.
Yale
The Bulldogs are clear favorites in the Ivy League as they hunt a fourth NCAA tournament appearance in the last five years. Senior forward Nick Townsend is a star, and the personnel around him could be elite defensively.
Charleston
Charleston is among the most well-resourced programs at the mid-major level, and the Cougars’ roster reflects that. Among the potential stars to watch: elite athlete Mister Dean, who transfers in from USC Upstate, and skilled forward Colby Duggan, who was terrific at Campbell a year ago.
High Point
Flynn Clayman was a key part of the staff under Alan Huss that won 56 games the last two years, and he has an incredibly talented roster for his first year as a head coach. Rob Martin, Vincent Brady II and Scotty Washington all averaged at least 13 points per game at their respective Division I homes last season and team up in one Big South backcourt.
Miami (Ohio)
The RedHawks won 25 games last season in a third-year breakthrough for Travis Steele and have the luxury of rare roster continuity in this era. They rank in the top 10 nationally in percentage of minutes returning, including some outstanding players like guard Peter Suder and wing Eian Elmer.
St. Thomas
Last year, UC San Diego won 30 games and nearly upset Michigan in its first year eligible for the NCAA tournament. This year’s version of this story could be St. Thomas, which has won 20-plus games in back-to-back seasons and now finally gets eligible to Dance as it completes its Division III to Division I transition. A pair of high-major transfers in Isaiah Johnson-Arigu (Miami) and Nick Janowski (Nebraska) provide a nice talent injection.
Chattanooga
The Mocs program is riding high off winning the NIT last season. While the roster has plenty of new faces, Dan Earl’s offensive system is fantastic, and Division II transfers Jikari Johnson (Trevecca Nazarene) and Jordan Frison (Pittsburg State) each put up monster numbers at a lower level.
UC Santa Barbara
UC Irvine is the standard-bearer in the Big West and will be a factor again, but the most talented group on paper is the Gauchos. Aidan Mahaney starred at Saint Mary’s before a tough stint at UConn, while fellow high-major down-transfer Miro Little should also make a big impact.
